Cluttons Publish 2010 Residential Property Forecast
International property consultants and chartered surveyors, Cluttons, has released its forecasts for next year’s property market .The forecast sets out a central scenario; a best case (Upside) scenario; and a worst case (Downside) scenario for UK capital values, Central London capital values and Central London rental values.
Here are the key points of the UK and London capital values scenarios:
UK Capital Vales
Central:
- By the end of 2009, UK property prices are expected to be 2.6 per cent higher than at the end of the previous year, following an impressive rebound.
- However, early 2010 will see price weakness return and values are expected to fall by -1.5 per cent during the year.
- By the end of 2013, in spite of three years of house price growth, values are forecast to be -4.6 per cent below their Q3 2007 peak.
Upside:
- In this scenario, UK house prices are forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent and 1.7 per cent in 2009 and 2010 respectively.
- Prices are expected to have recovered most of their decline by the end of 2013 when they will be close to the 2007 peak in nominal terms.
Downside:
- Annual growth in prices in 2009 is forecast to be 2.4 per cent.
- In 2010, price growth will be weaker than that of the central scenario, with values falling by -4.8 per cent.
- By the end of 2013, it is expected that values will still be -7.3 per cent below their peak.
Central London Capital Values:
Central:
- House prices in Central London are expected to show a growth of around 4.3 per cent in 2009, moderating to 2.6 per cent in 2010.
- Prices are expected to have exceeded their Q3 2007 peak by 4.6 per cent by the end of 2013.
Upside:
- Values in 2009 are likely to show a growth of 5.0 per cent.
- In 2010, the greater momentum in the London property market is expected to give growth of 7.3 per cent over the year.
- By the end of 2013, prices are expected to exceed their previous peak by 10.3 per cent.
Downside:
- Under this scenario we expect to see growth of 3.5 per cent in 2009, followed by a fall in 2010 of -3.1 per cent.
- However, subsequent growth should see values close to their previous peak by the end of 2013, down just -1.2 per cent.
Tags: forecast, property, residential